According to @charliebilello, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services totaled $766 billion in the first nine months of 2025 versus $653 billion in the same period of 2024, a 17% year-over-year increase and a record high. Source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 11, 2025. In U.S. national accounts, a larger trade deficit reduces GDP via the net exports component (NX), making the print relevant for rate expectations and USD positioning. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Handbook. Crypto traders can monitor USD moves and U.S. real yields for potential spillovers to BTC and ETH, which are broadly quoted in USD across major venues and via CME-listed bitcoin futures. Source: CME Group contract specifications for Bitcoin futures; exchange USD-quoted BTCUSD and ETHUSD markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US goods trade deficit sharply declined by $74.7 billion in April 2025, reaching $87.6 billion—the lowest level since September 2023. Goods imports also dropped by $68.4 billion, hitting $276.1 billion, the lowest since October 2024, and marking the largest monthly decline on record (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 2, 2025). This significant narrowing of the trade deficit could signal cooling demand and potential tightening of USD liquidity, which may impact risk appetite across crypto markets. Traders should monitor the USD's strength as macroeconomic shifts like this can influence Bitcoin and altcoin price trends through changes in capital flows and market sentiment.